Will Civilian Drones Used for Military Purposes Change the Geopolitical Landscape?
“The first sound that Yaroslav Vinokurov, 24, heard in the early morning was the wailing of the air-raid alarm in the darkness and he continued his work, given that alarms sound nearly every day. But soon machine-gun fire echoed through the Shevchenkivskyi district as air-defense systems flashed in the sky, followed by what he described as “a very loud explosion.” “I lay down on the floor, as I didn’t know what else can happen,” Mr. Vinokurov said. Many buildings were damaged and some of the transportation mobiles were destroyed by the attack.”[1] This was reported by the New York Times on December 14, 2022.
The relentless kamikaze attacks with a surge of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones by the Russian troops has targeted not only Ukrainian military facilities[2] but also the transportation and infrastructure of civilians.[3] This fear has been raised by the constant, but irregular, drone attacks. Recently, in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones have solidified their reputation as a potent, difficult-to-stop, and cost-effective weapon. They are capable of seeking out and destroying targets while concurrently spreading terror, weakening the resolve of soldiers and civilians.[4] Despite the Iranian government publicly denying their support of military drones for the Russians, the drones used by Russia are Iranian-made.
Figure 1 -- A drone approaching for an attack in Kyiv[5]
Military Drones vs Civilian Drones
Military drones are the ultimate tools that a security unit uses for performing a complex and covert surveillance mission. Drones are sent to perform a mission autonomously and are remote controlled by an operator via a sophisticated GCS Unit.[6]. Military drones are accurate, compact, and capable of engaging a target in relatively large numbers, like a swarm of wasps. However, when we see the Russians put explosive bombs on civilian drones, the lines between military and civilian drones start to blur.
The difference between military drones and civilian drones lies in their design and performance. Military drones are specifically designed and used for military purposes with higher performance requirements, while civilian drones are designed for civilian applications with a focus on comfort and portability.
An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), or drone, is an aircraft that is operated remotely or autonomously to carry out specific aerial tasks. It does not carry onboard operators and relies on either wireless remote controls or programmed instructions. UAVs can be used for one-time missions or for reusable missions, and they can carry both lethal and non-lethal payloads.
In terms of design, military drones are specifically designed for military purposes, such as reconnaissance, target strikes, and intelligence gathering. They specifically have stronger structures and higher durability to withstand harsh battlefield environments. Civilian drones, on the other hand, are typically designed for civilian use, such as aerial photography, cargo transportation, and agricultural spraying – all with a focus on comfort and portability.
In terms of performance, military drones generally have higher performance requirements, such as longer endurance, higher speed, a longer communication range, and more powerful sensors and weapon systems, due to the higher demands of military missions. The performance of civilian drones varies depending on the specific application and market demand.[7]
It is worth noting that with the continuous development and application of drone technology, the boundary between military drones and civilian drones may become blurred, and some drones may have applications in both the military and civilian fields. In addition, the use and regulation of drones may vary among different countries and regions, so the specific differences may vary depending on the location and application scenario.
There have been instances where civilian drones have been used for military purposes. In the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, all sides have reportedly used modified civilian drones for various military purposes.[8] Many also observed a ‘significant growth’ in the combat use of civilian drones in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.[9]
On the other hand, military drones have also been used for civilian purposes. For example, in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the U.S. military deployed drones to assist in search and rescue operations by searching for survivors and assessing hurricane damage.[10]
Reconnaissance is a military use of drones.It involves using drones to gather intelligence on enemy activities, such as troop movements, weapon placements, and other information that can be used to plan military operations. However, reconnaissance can also be conducted by civilian drones and satellites even though it is sometimes not as accurate as the military drones.
Figure 2 – Examples of various of civil and military drone models[11]
The Origin and Use of Drones
In 1927, “Professor” A.M. Low, who is the pioneer of powered drone aircrafts, successfully tested the unmanned aircraft he developed on the British warship "Fortress". Some historians have bestowed upon him the title “Father of the Remotely Piloted Vehicle” for being a pioneer in this field.[12] In 1931, Britain successfully developed the "Fairey Queen", an unmanned target drone, and used it in naval fleet exercises. In the mid-1950s, the United States launched the first practical reconnaissance aircraft in its history: the AN/USD-1 unmanned reconnaissance aircraft.[13] During the Vietnam War in 1955, U.S. U-2 unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, Ryan Model 147, and other military drones appeared. Many were utilized to confront the challenges from the Soviet Union.[14] In the Bekaa Valley region of Lebanon in the early 1980s, Syrian SAM missile arrays were used to surprise attack the Israeli military drones, and for the first time, they showed the world their huge, undeniable combat potential. In the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. military deployed Predator drones armed with Hellfire missiles to carry out targeted strikes against the Iraqi government under Saddam Hussein.[15] During the war in Afghanistan in 2001, the United States used the "Predator" drone to mount the "Hellfire" missile, turning the drone into a multifunctional combat aircraft integrating "reconnaissance and strike."[16] In 2015, during the Yemeni civil war, Houthi militants used Iranian drones to effectively neutralize the Saudi military, which was equipped with advanced American weaponry.[17] In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan-Armenia) war, Azerbaijan's use of armed drones, including kamikaze drones, against Armenia resulted in an overwhelming superiority in terms of both numbers and equipment, leading to a political victory facilitated by Russian mediation.[18]
Under the current trend of world militaries, future warfare and conflicts will continue to move towards being unmanned and utilizing artificial intelligence. In the direction of this development, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) will be widely used in many fields within future operations with multifunctions. Therefore, it is important to understand the development of UAVs.
Advantages of Drones
War drones have two unique advantages. First, unlike aircraft or raids, drones fly directly over hostile territories and targets to achieve their missions, preventing the risk of personal injury, capture, or death on the attacking side.[19] Second, drones provide a near-instantaneous response, dramatically shrinking what U.S. military targeting experts call the “find-fix-finish” loop, which most other platforms lack.[20] In other words, drones can find, verify, and destroy the target.
With the development of military technology, the military-technology gap and warfare strategies between rich and poor countries tend to be polarized. The United States, China, and Israel dominate the military trade market with their military drones. Their warfare ideologies, coupled with their expensive military equipment, guarantee the robustness of these regions’ geographic integrity and military hegemony.
Economic Factors
From an economic perspective, the global market for military drones is worth hundreds of billions of dollars, with the United States, China, and Israel dominating the market. According to Expert Market Research, the global military drone market is expected to reach $22.4 billion by 2024.[21] In recent years, the United States has spent approximately 0.4% of its defense budget on drone systems, with a projected spending budget of $3.1 billion in 2023.[22] There are few countries with the capability to independently produce high-performance military drones, making the military drone trade market active. According to SIPRI statistics, from 2010 to 2020, Israel, the United States, and China accounted for 31%, 28%, and 17% of the export share in the global military drone trade market, respectively. China, although starting later, has rapidly developed its military drone capabilities, with drones such as the "Wing Loong" and "Rainbow" series gaining recognition and market share in the military drone trade market.
However, the market for civilian drones is bigger than the market for military drones, and their potential military use has led to unprecedented and uncontrollable outcomes. According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, the Global Commercial UAS Market Outlook, 2020, finds that the industry is transitioning from a nascent to a growth stage.[23] With the surge in demand for commercial drones by the professional segment, unit shipment is estimated to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%, reaching 2.91 million units by 2023 from 2.44 million units in 2019.[24] By 2023, North America will remain the largest market for commercial UAS with a total of 32.3% unit demand, followed by APAC and Europe at 29.1% and 23.3%, respectively.[25] In terms of type composition, consumer drones have dominated the civilian drone market in recent years, but with the expansion of industrial applications, industrial drones will become the development focus of civilian drones in the future, and the market size will grow rapidly. Shenzhen UAV Industry Association announced that the global civilian drone market will grow to 59.38 billion USD (415.727 billion RMB) by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 43.03% from 2015 to 2024.[26] In addition, the growth rate of industrial drones is expected to exceed that of consumer drones and gradually become a major component of the civilian drone market. It is projected that the market size of industrial drones will reach 45.83 billion USD (320.82 billion RMB) by 2024, accounting for approximately 77% of the global civilian drone market, up from 25% in 2015, with an average annual compound growth rate of 57.55% from 2015 to 2024.[27]
Drones are difficult to embargo due to the inner components. This makes it challenging for countries to regulate and control the proliferation of drones, especially in conflict zones or areas with limited governance. Drones can be used for illicit activities, such as smuggling, espionage, and terrorist attacks, which can all pose threats to national security and disrupt geopolitical stability. Most components are hard to be embargoed. For example, Iran's approach to drone development involves using civilian technology to reduce costs, with most military drones made from aerospace aluminum alloy, fiberglass, or high-strength plastic.[28] However, there are still gaps in the stability and clarity of electro-optical sensors, with a limited usable field of view and image drift.[29] To control drones remotely, Iran relies on purchasing commercial satellite communication services, which effectively reduce costs but result in unsatisfactory performance for military use.[30]
With the continuous development of drone technology, the conversion of civilian drones for military use has become an opportunity for some countries with lagging military development.Not only do they profit from military deployment of civilian drones, but also attempt to change the geopolitical landscape.
The Calculus of Waging Warfare
The purpose of war and the impact of civilian drones on the military use Carl von Clausewitz's theory of war, which states that war is simply the continuation of political intercourse with the addition of other means.[31] What political objectives are to be achieved through war? It could be capturing territories, economic goals, religious issues, ethnic conflicts, and so on. War is the most brutal means to achieve these objectives. The core of war is actually economic warfare, as the country that has more money and more patience is more likely to win.
In the event of a conflict between two superpowers, the possibility of using civilian drones is very low, as the economic and military strength of both sides can render the use of civilian drones meaningless. For example, electromagnetic interference systems and high-intensity air defense can make civilian drones impractical, and the use of civilian drones may be to compensate for reconnaissance shortcomings and achieve cost consistency for the relatively weaker side. For example, in the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, one analysis suggested that it only cost Russia between $12 to $18 million to launch a wave of drone attacks, while the cost for Ukraine to defend against them was estimated at around $28 million, the Guardian reported.[32] The New York Times reported the cost of shooting down Iranian-made drones over Ukraine can be significantly higher than the cost of manufacturing them, giving Russia an advantage in their invasion.[33] In addition, the Shahed-136 drones deployed by Russia are relatively inexpensive to produce, estimated at around $20,000, while the cost of shooting one down can range from $140,000 to $500,000.[34] Furthermore, this does not even consider the cost if the drones hit their intended targets. Utilizing low-cost civilian drones to consume higher-cost advanced equipment, which must abandon assets to protect higher-cost core new bases. The use of drones is a tactical action based on the strategic goals of the user. Drones are not suitable for occupying targets, but their ability to kill enemy forces and deplete economic support was demonstrated in the Azerbaijan-Armenia war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In sharp contrast to the civilian drones in military use on the warfares, the US bombing campaign over North Vietnam in the 1965 and 1966, which the CIA estimated cost the US $6.6 and $9.6 for per one dollar of damage.[35] On the other hand, the cost of the Yugoslav Air campaign cost $6 billion and $15 billion if included the ground troops from the beginning until the end of April 1999.[36] The Foreign Minister demanded the NATO to pay $100 billion due to the cost from the NATO bombing campaign, but some European officials have estimated the cost of repairing the damage at between $30 to $50 billion.[37] Therefore, some of the air bombing campaigns provided more robust results compared with the North Vietnam air bombing campaign.
On the other hand, the non-state actors, such as Houthi militants in Yemen, indicate a different cost and damage ratio. During the Yemeni Civil War, civilian drones,which of range up to 930 miles, used in military attacks not only exposed a Saudi vulnerability in the war against the Houthis, but also demonstrated how relatively cheap it has become to stage such high-profile strikes.[38] The drones used may have cost $15,000 or less to build, said Wim Zwijnenburg, a senior researcher on drones at PAX, a Dutch peace organization.[39] According to the CSIS’s report, attacks on Saudi infrastructure, particularly with UAVs, represent an effective way to impose maximum economic and reputational consequences for the Saudi government at a relatively low cost.[40] Patriot interceptors, bought from the United States in order to intercept targets, can cost over $1 million, while Houthi UAVs may cost only a few hundred dollars.[41]
Unprecedented Possibilities
Will organizations like Hamas use civilian drones for military purposes, and can Israel's Iron Dome system bear the high cost of defense against drones and the fear of drones from the civilian population? Will cheap civilian drones become mainstream in conflicts among different religions or sects in the Middle East? Will fundamentalist Muslims start using civilian drones for terrorist attacks, and will the opposing side have the economic and logistical capacity to organize and defend against such attacks? Whether suicide attacks will be replaced by drones is also an unknown factor.
Summary
Civilian drones in military use have the potential to significantly impact the geopolitical landscape and raise moral concerns due to their various features. First, the affordability and accessibility of drone technology make them cheaper to produce, resulting in widespread availability and usage. Second, drones are difficult to be dodged and embargoed, posing challenges for international regulations and control measures. Third, the "find fix finish" capability of drones, which refers to their ability to locate, track, and strike targets, can create uneven power dynamics in conflicts. Last, the proliferation of civilian drones in military use by non-state actors, such as militant coups and terrorist organizations, adds another layer of complexity to global politics. The low cost and accessibility of these drones has made them attractive to non-state actors seeking to carry out asymmetric warfare, disrupt traditional military operations, and challenge established power structures. The cost of overthrowing a government is very cheap and the countries without determined stability may confront severe challenges from this new and economic technology. This has raised concerns about the potential for increased insecurity, destabilization, and the blurring of lines between state and non-state actors in global conflicts.
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