Ships navigating through the Arctic region
**Photo credit:** *CNBC*

According to Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, a renowned United States (U.S.) naval officer and an advocate of American Imperialism, maintaining control over maritime resources, trade routes, and naval bases is essential for any nation aspiring to global power.[1] Ideas presented in his book, The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, among other works, significantly shaped the naval strategies of major powers during the 19th and 20th centuries. Today, the shadow of Admiral Mahan still looms large over U.S naval strategies. Based on the trends of recent Executive Orders and President Trump’s speech on trade, global power, and threats towards Panama, Greenland, and Canada, the resurgence of Trump makes Mahan’s ideology even more important. It seems as though Greenland will be one of the guineapigs to pave Trump’s triumph to U.S. global hegemony.

Why Greenland?

As a self-governing country within the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland has 836,300 square miles of land, making it a bit larger than Alaska. Its vast landscape--full of natural resources and convenient arctic routes for maritime shipping--resonant well with the legacy of Admiral Mahan. Interestingly, the U.S.’ intention to annex Greenland from Denmark is not about military deterrence against Russia. The country maintains a longstanding history of military cooperation with Denmark. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union’s Red Banner Northern Fleets posed a massive threat to the U.S. The Fleets’ missiles and nuclear weapons could easily have launched from the Barents Sea, crossed over Greenland and Canada, and hit strategic targets such as Washington D.C., New York, and Boston. This resulted in the establishment of the Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base, in 1951. By providing early warning systems and space-based missions, it played a supporting role for the U.S. and its allies’ defense efforts in the Arctic.[2] Since the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, the Pituffik Space Base continues to serve as a critical hub for space operations, Arctic security, and scientific research, illustrating the existing U.S. military presence and slowly shifting purposes of the base.[3]

Drill Baby Drill?

As the largest island in the world with 81 percent of its land covered by ice,[4] Greenland has significant potential as a mining powerhouse. They hold a wide variety of critical mineral resources such as copper, graphite, rare earth elements, nickel, uranium, and zinc, which are highly critical to U.S. energy transition and national defense.[5] Its reserve of rare earth elements is up to 12 million tons, making it the largest reserve outside of China.[6] Likewise, the U.S. is a major gas exporter--benefiting from the fracking technology revolution—and Greenland’s estimated 17.5 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and 148 trillion cubic feet of natural gas[7] is a key interest of the Trump Administration as part of its strategy to strengthen the U.S. dominance in the fossil fuel industry. Greenland’s current production capacity remains underutilized, hindered by geological exploration difficulties, harsh weather conditions, and strong active environmental protection efforts. However, with the global temperature reaching 1.2 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, melting ice has exposed more maritime transit routes, increasing the viability of exploring Greenland’s resources and attracting more attention from foreign entities.

Trade within the Arctic

Other than its vast resource reserves, Greenland is situated at one such location as it provides key routes for maritime shipping. Global warming has caused the Arctic ice sheet to shrink, exposing multiple shipping routes for the transportation of goods (see image below). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s 2022 Report on Polar Regions indicates that the surface of the Arctic ice declines every month, with the largest reduction in September. Likewise, it has decreased at a rate of -12.8 percent per decade from 1979 to 2018.[8] As a result, shipping activity in the Arctic summer has increased over the past two decades, while transit times across the Northern Sea Route have shortened.[9] Even though the shipping route is only exposed for a few months each summer, this short window is highly valuable for global transits.

Image from NOAA link: https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2020/sea-ice-3/

As 90 percent of traded goods are shipped by sea, these new shipping routes are incredibly important for global trade. Even though trade in the Global South has increased by 14.1 percent since 1995, reaching 25 percent of global share,[10] trade in the Global North is responsible for the majority of international trade at 37.1 percent.[11] The four global maritime chokepoints have significant influence over global maritime trades due to their geographical locations. For instance, the English Channel is the busiest ocean shipping lane with more than 500 vessels passing through each day.[12] Malacca Strait, along with the Suez Canal, handles 30 percent of global traded goods while the Panama Canal controls trades between East Asia, Europe, and North America.[13]

Looking at a horizontal map centered on the United States, China, and Europe, it is easy to assume that passing through these chokepoints provides the optimal maritime shipping route. However, when viewing on a vertical projection, the spatial relationships between these regions become less intuitive, making distance perception more challenging. In reality, shipping through Arctic with limited ice can shorten the distance between the U.S. and China or even between the European Union (EU) and China (see image below).

Splash; Source: https://splash247.com/milestones-reached-along-the-increasingly-busy-northern-sea-route/

In 2024, bilateral trade between China and the EU reached US$762 billion, as China is the EU’s largest source of imports.[14] Even under the trade war, U.S.-China bilateral trade still amounted to US$532 billion[15] with China as third largest trading partner behind Canada and Mexico.[16] For context, once a cargo leaves China and ships to Northern Europe through normal maritime routes, it takes roughly 31 to 50 days to arrive[17] depending on the congestion at the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca.

The new Arctic route, on the other hand, significantly shortens the transit time and milage, and reduces financial costs. For example, a trip from Dalian, China, to Rotterdam, Netherlands, via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) takes approximately 33 days.[18] The reduced travel time and ability to circumvent political uncertainties in the Middle East opens the door for bigger countries who already have the geological advantage of the Arctic. This rationale helps explain why President Trump and President Putin have prioritized fossil fuel extraction over substantial efforts to address climate change.

To lower the cost and time of shipping, China has invested in the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) to increase trade route options and bypass choke points.[19] To further expand U.S. influence on the Arctic region, the U.S. Coast Guard received an approval on December 2024 to begin constructing the first polar security cutter (PSC)[20] and may approve two more with a total estimated cost of US$3.2 billion, according to the Congressional Budgeting Office.[21]

What’s next?

Greenland is a pivotal symbol of maritime dominance on the North American Arctic frontline. The strategic control of Alaska, Canada, and Greenland will undoubtedly redefine the future of global maritime shipping routes and further Admiral Mahan’s legacy of naval imperialism. Moreover, with its vast reserve of rare earth elements, Greenland holds the key for the U.S. to further its efforts in reducing Chinese dominance to its critical mineral supply chain. Whether Greenland merges as the 51st State or succumbs to U.S. economic and commercial influence, its role in shaping the geopolitical and economic landscape of the Arctic is undeniable.

[1] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1866-1898/mahan

[2] https://www.spaceforce.mil/News/Article/3355840/thule-air-base-gets-new-name/

[3] https://www.spaceforce.mil/News/Article/3355840/thule-air-base-gets-new-name/

[4] https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol3/2019/myb3-2019-denmark-faroe-islands-greenland.pdf

[5] https://pubs.usgs.gov/myb/vol3/2019/myb3-2019-denmark-faroe-islands-greenland.pdf

[6] https://enewspaper.latimes.com/infinity/article_share.aspx?guid=a19417b2-2a8d-4fa8-9a94-f3c7f159daa4#:~:text=Geologists%20have%20identified%20large%20deposits,earth%20deposits%20outside%20of%20China.

[7] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/greenland-suspends-oil-exploration-because-of-climate-change

[8] https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2022/03/05_SROCC_Ch03_FINAL.pdf

[9] https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2022/03/05_SROCC_Ch03_FINAL.pdf

[10] https://unctad.org/publication/trade-and-development-report-2022

[11] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-south-south-trade-is-already-greater-than-north-north-trade-and-what-it-means-for-africa/

[12] https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/02/worlds-busiest-ocean-shipping-routes-trade/